Interactive Pricing Model

At these assumptions, AMP reaches $1.59 by Year 10 with 1.43% US market share

20-Year Price Trajectory

Assumptions

$1.3B
$100.0M$5.0B

Default: ~$1.3B

$250.0B
$10.0B$800.0B
$3.14T
$500.0B$10.00T
28%
0%100%

% staked in V3

Merchant Fee Rate

0.6375%

Buyback %

90%

Staking Ceiling

50%

Circulating Supply

84.28B

Year 1

$0.0127

Market Cap$1.1B
US GMV$1.3B
US Share0.012%
Fee Revenue$8.5M
AMP Buyback7,624,241

Year 5

$0.1062

Market Cap$9.5B
US GMV$13.6B
US Share0.102%
Fee Revenue$86.9M
AMP Buyback78,175,458

Year 10

$1.59

Market Cap$150.8B
US GMV$250.0B
US Share1.433%
Fee Revenue$1.6B
AMP Buyback1,434,375,000

Year 20

$13.00

Market Cap$1.3T
US GMV$3.1T
US Share10.550%
Fee Revenue$20.0B
AMP Buyback18,034,684,580

Model Assumptions & Methodology

Pricing Engine: Three parallel models blended with shifting weights over 20 years. CLW Asset Pricing (60%→5%) captures collateral-locked value; ARMA Buy Pressure (10%→25%) models momentum from buyback flow; DCF Maturity (30%→70%) applies Gordon Growth with decaying discount rate (8%→6%). See Amp Whitepaper §4–5.

Default GMV (Year 1): Based on 5% capture of confirmed Flexa merchants' card-present transaction volume. 16 confirmed merchants with ~$40.9B combined revenue (excl. group-level), 65% card-present assumption = ~$26.6B addressable × 5% = ~$1.33B.

Merchant Fee Rate: 0.6375% — Flexa's published rate, significantly below credit card interchange (1.5–3.5%). Fixed as a model constant.

Buyback Mechanism: 90% of merchant fees used to purchase AMP from open market (Whitepaper §5). Remaining 10% covers network operations.

Staking: Dynamic S-curve model. Higher yields attract more stakers (yield-sensitive adjustment), reducing liquid supply and creating a supply squeeze effect on price.

US Market Share: US GMV ÷ US Credit Card TAM ($10.77T in Year 0, growing 5.5%/yr per Nilson Report). Not a forecast — shows what share of US card payments would flow through Flexa at each GMV level.

Bear/Bull Bands: ±40%/+60% around base case. These represent scenario multipliers, not probabilistic confidence intervals.

Revenue estimates marked "est." are not verified. This model is for educational/research purposes only. Not financial advice.