Interactive Pricing Model
At these assumptions, AMP reaches $1.59 by Year 10 with 1.43% US market share
20-Year Price Trajectory
Assumptions
Default: ~$1.3B
% staked in V3
Merchant Fee Rate
0.6375%
Buyback %
90%
Staking Ceiling
50%
Circulating Supply
84.28B
Year 1
$0.0127
Year 5
$0.1062
Year 10
$1.59
Year 20
$13.00
Model Assumptions & Methodology
Pricing Engine: Three parallel models blended with shifting weights over 20 years. CLW Asset Pricing (60%→5%) captures collateral-locked value; ARMA Buy Pressure (10%→25%) models momentum from buyback flow; DCF Maturity (30%→70%) applies Gordon Growth with decaying discount rate (8%→6%). See Amp Whitepaper §4–5.
Default GMV (Year 1): Based on 5% capture of confirmed Flexa merchants' card-present transaction volume. 16 confirmed merchants with ~$40.9B combined revenue (excl. group-level), 65% card-present assumption = ~$26.6B addressable × 5% = ~$1.33B.
Merchant Fee Rate: 0.6375% — Flexa's published rate, significantly below credit card interchange (1.5–3.5%). Fixed as a model constant.
Buyback Mechanism: 90% of merchant fees used to purchase AMP from open market (Whitepaper §5). Remaining 10% covers network operations.
Staking: Dynamic S-curve model. Higher yields attract more stakers (yield-sensitive adjustment), reducing liquid supply and creating a supply squeeze effect on price.
US Market Share: US GMV ÷ US Credit Card TAM ($10.77T in Year 0, growing 5.5%/yr per Nilson Report). Not a forecast — shows what share of US card payments would flow through Flexa at each GMV level.
Bear/Bull Bands: ±40%/+60% around base case. These represent scenario multipliers, not probabilistic confidence intervals.
Revenue estimates marked "est." are not verified. This model is for educational/research purposes only. Not financial advice.